Covid-19 Risk Assessment for England #233
Week Ending 22 June 2025
Covid infection levels are continuing to slowly rise but, for the moment, still remain at historically lower levels. Around 1 in every 239 people in England were infected in the week to 22 June, and the overall Covid risk remains Moderately High.
Once again, there is no evidence in any data that there is a current Covid wave in England. The long-term trend is of a very gradual increase in infection levels. If this trend continues, infection levels will reach the same level as last summer (when we were in the trough between two waves) by August. For the moment, therefore, we are leaving our risk advice unchanged.
As we say every week, it is important to recognise that ‘historically lower levels’ does not mean ‘safe’. With 1 in 239 people infected with Covid, the risk of meeting an infected person in your everyday life is still moderately high. Around 200,000 people in England have Covid at any one time, and this level is maintained by new infections week on week. So, there are still plenty of opportunities to encounter an infected person. This is why we still recommend Covid precautions are taken in higher risk areas, as explained below.
Risk Illustration
BuDS continues to encourage everyone to take the level of Covid and other precautions that feels right for them, bearing in mind their own personal circumstances and the need to protect others. Our role is to give you the information to help you make informed decisions, and we will do so in this post. Remember, precautions against Covid will also help protect against all respiratory viruses including flu, norovirus, bird flu and measles.
Some indoor places remain high risk for catching Covid, regardless of the general infection level, because they are typically poorly ventilated and used by large numbers of people who are not taking any Covid precautions but who have a higher-than-average chance of having Covid. We continue to strongly recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask in these high-risk places or if meeting people who use them. High risk places include: buses, trains, taxis, transit systems like the London Underground, hospitals, GP practices, dentists, vaccination clinics, pharmacies, schools, universities and colleges.
Indoor places with large numbers of users remain medium-high risk for Covid because, even if the general level of Covid is lower, there are still enough people using those places that some of those users will be infected and breathing out virus. We continue to strongly recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask in these medium-high risk places. These include: bars and clubs, large supermarkets, indoor shopping centres, large office buildings, and most cinemas and theatres.
Indoor places with smaller numbers of users, such as medium-sized restaurants, supermarkets, smaller offices and individual larger shops, are currently medium risk places. In an average busy medium-sized supermarket, for example, statistically there will be at least 1 infected person every time you visit. We therefore continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for all clinically-vulnerable people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is safe enough for them to relax some precautions. This is very much an individual choice, as it has been throughout the pandemic.
Indoor places with small numbers of users, such as small cafes and shops, are currently lower risk for catching Covid. Again, we continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for acutely clinically-vulnerable people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions. This is very much an individual choice, as it has been throughout the pandemic. Again, we say this is because, statistically, it is currently unlikely that an infected person will be using that space at the same time as you. In a local café, which has maybe a dozen seats, statistically speaking you would have to visit a full café around 20 times before you encountered a Covid-infected person. Remember, however, you might be unlucky and sit next to the one Covid-infected person on your first visit.
Covid Is Airborne
Covid, flu, norovirus, bird flu and measles are all airborne. An infected person in an unventilated place creates an invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke for you to breathe in. Dispersing the virus cloud through fresh air ventilation – e.g. opening a window or door – or clearing the virus from the air through HEPA filtration should be the first ways used to make the space safer. PPE respiratory masks should be the last line of defence if other means cannot be used, although clinically-vulnerable people may wish to use multiple layers of defence to suit their own vulnerability.
Remember too that Covid is not just dangerous for clinically-vulnerable people. The virus has been proven to have an adverse health impact on most people who catch Covid. No-one should be relaxed about catching Covid.
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