Covid-19 Risk Assessment for England #218
Week Ending 9 March 2025
Covid infection levels in England have remained relatively low for the 16th week in a row. As of the week ending 9 March, around 1 in every 336 people were infected, and the overall Covid risk remains Moderately High.
There is what might be the early signs of an increase in Covid infection levels, but not enough evidence to reliably indicate that a new wave is coming. We have checked these figures against the only other reputable source available, the Scottish wastewater monitoring of Covid virus levels. While the figures aren’t directly comparable, both data sets show similar trends of a long period of static Covid levels. This makes us as confident as we can be that the Covid figures we give are credible.
Influenza infections are still continuing to fall, and we expect them to be back to baseline levels in the next 2 months. However, UKHSA has warned of a possible second wave of a new variant of Norovirus, which causes sickness and diarrhoea and can be dangerous for many people. Norovirus is also a virus spread through the air by aerosol, like flu and Covid, as well as by droplets in the air and on surfaces.
Risk Illustration
BuDS continues to encourage everyone to take the level of Covid precautions that feels right for them, bearing in mind their own personal circumstances and the need to protect others. Our role is to give you the information to help you make informed decisions, and we will do so in this post.
Some indoor places remain high risk for catching Covid, regardless of the general infection level, because they are typically poorly ventilated and used by large numbers of people who are not taking any Covid precautions but who have a higher-than-average chance of having Covid. We continue to strongly recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask in these high-risk places or if meeting people who use them. High risk places include: buses, trains, taxis, transit systems like the London Underground, hospitals, GP practices, dentists, vaccination clinics, pharmacies, schools, universities and colleges.
Indoor places with large numbers of users remain medium-high risk for Covid because, even if the general level of Covid is lower, there are still enough people using those places that some of those users will be infected and breathing out virus. We continue to strongly recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask in these medium-high risk places. These include: bars and clubs, large supermarkets, indoor shopping centres, large office buildings, and most cinemas and theatres.
Indoor places with smaller numbers of users, such as medium-sized restaurants, supermarkets, smaller offices and individual larger shops, are currently medium places. We continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for all clinically-vulnerable people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is safe enough for them to relax some precautions. This is very much an individual choice, as it has been throughout the pandemic. We say this because, statistically, the chances of meeting an infected person in such places is the lowest it has been for the last 4 years. In an average busy medium-sized supermarket, for example, statistically there will be 1 infected person on most (9 of 10) visits.
Indoor places with small numbers of users, such as small cafes and shops, are currently lower risk for catching Covid. Again, we continue to recommend Covid precautions including a respiratory mask for acutely clinically-vulnerable people using these spaces, but other people may feel it is currently safe enough for them to relax some precautions. This is very much an individual choice, as it has been throughout the pandemic. Again, we say this is because, statistically, it is currently unlikely that an infected person will be using that space at the same time as you. In a local café, which has maybe a dozen seats, statistically speaking you would have to visit a full café 29 times before you encountered a Covid-infected person. Remember, however, you might be unlucky and sit next to the one Covid-infected person on your first visit.
Covid Is Airborne
Covid and flu are airborne. An infected person in an unventilated place creates an invisible cloud of virus which hangs in the air like smoke for you to breathe in. Dispersing the virus cloud through fresh air ventilation – e.g. opening a window or door – or clearing the virus from the air through HEPA filtration should be the first ways used to make the space safer. PPE respiratory masks should be the last line of defence if other means cannot be used, although clinically-vulnerable people may wish to use multiple layers of defence to suit their own vulnerability.
Remember too that Covid is not just dangerous for clinically-vulnerable people. The virus has been proven to have an adverse health impact on most people who catch Covid. No-one should be relaxed about catching Covid.
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incredibly grateful for your work as always. thank you so much.